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We present the Cardinal mock galaxy catalogs, a new version of the Buzzard simulation that has been updated to support ongoing and future cosmological surveys, including the Dark Energy Survey (DES), DESI, and LSST. These catalogs are based on a one-quarter sky simulation populated with galaxies out to a redshift ofz= 2.35 to a depth ofm_r= 27. Compared to the Buzzard mocks, the Cardinal mocks include an updated subhalo abundance matching model that considers orphan galaxies and includes mass-dependent scatter between galaxy luminosity and halo properties. This model can simultaneously fit galaxy clustering and group–galaxy cross-correlations measured in three different luminosity threshold samples. The Cardinal mocks also feature a new color assignment model that can simultaneously fit color-dependent galaxy clustering in three different luminosity bins. We have developed an algorithm that uses photometric data to further improve the color assignment model and have also developed a novel method to improve small-scale lensing below the ray-tracing resolution. These improvements enable the Cardinal mocks to accurately reproduce the abundance of galaxy clusters and the properties of lens galaxies in the DES data. As such, these simulations will be a valuable tool for future cosmological analyses based on large sky surveys.

 

Local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) is a promising observable of the underlying physics of inflation, characterized by $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$. We present the methodology to measure $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data using the two-point angular correlation function (ACF) with scale-dependent bias. One of the focuses of the work is the integral constraint (IC). This condition appears when estimating the mean number density of galaxies from the data and is key in obtaining unbiased $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ constraints. The methods are analysed for two types of simulations: ∼246 goliat-png N-body small area simulations with fNL equal to −100 and 100, and 1952 Gaussian ice-cola mocks with fNL = 0 that follow the DES angular and redshift distribution. We use the ensemble of goliat-png mocks to show the importance of the IC when measuring PNG, where we recover the fiducial values of fNL within the 1σ when including the IC. In contrast, we found a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 100 when not including it. For a DES-like scenario, we forecast a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 23, equivalent to 1.8σ, when not using the IC for a fiducial value of fNL = 100. We use the ice-cola mocks to validate our analysis in a realistic DES-like set-up finding it robust to different analysis choices: best-fitting estimator, the effect of IC, BAO damping, covariance, and scale choices. We forecast a measurement of fNL within σ(fNL) = 31 when using the DES-Y3 BAO sample, with the ACF in the 1 deg < θ < 20 deg range.

 

ABSTRACT We simulate the scientific performance of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope High Latitude Survey (HLS) on dark energy and modified gravity. The 1.6-yr HLS Reference survey is currently envisioned to image 2000 deg2 in multiple bands to a depth of ∼26.5 in Y, J, H and to cover the same area with slit-less spectroscopy beyond z = 3. The combination of deep, multiband photometry and deep spectroscopy will allow scientists to measure the growth and geometry of the Universe through a variety of cosmological probes (e.g. weak lensing, galaxy clusters, galaxy clustering, BAO, Type Ia supernova) and, equally, it will allow an exquisite control of observational and astrophysical systematic effects. In this paper, we explore multiprobe strategies that can be implemented, given the telescope’s instrument capabilities. We model cosmological probes individually and jointly and account for correlated systematics and statistical uncertainties due to the higher order moments of the density field. We explore different levels of observational systematics for the HLS survey (photo-z and shear calibration) and ultimately run a joint likelihood analysis in N-dim parameter space. We find that the HLS reference survey alone can achieve a standard dark energy FoM of >300 when including all probes. This assumes no information from external data sets, we assume a flat universe however, and includes realistic assumptions for systematics. Our study of the HLS reference survey should be seen as part of a future community-driven effort to simulate and optimize the science return of the Roman Space Telescope. 

ABSTRACT We explore synergies between the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope and the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Specifically, we consider scenarios where the currently envisioned survey strategy for the Roman Space Telescope’s High Latitude Survey (HLS reference), i.e. 2000 deg2 in four narrow photometric bands is altered in favour of a strategy of rapid coverage of the LSST area (to full LSST depth) in one band. We find that in only five months, a survey in the W-band can cover the full LSST survey area providing high-resolution imaging for >95 per cent of the LSST Year 10 gold galaxy sample. We explore a second, more ambitious scenario where the Roman Space Telescope spends 1.5 yr covering the LSST area. For this second scenario, we quantify the constraining power on dark energy equation-of-state parameters from a joint weak lensing and galaxy clustering analysis. Our survey simulations are based on the Roman Space Telescope exposure-time calculator and redshift distributions from the CANDELS catalogue. Our statistical uncertainties account for higher order correlations of the density field, and we include a wide range of systematic effects, such as uncertainties in shape and redshift measurements, and modelling uncertainties of astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic galaxy alignment, and baryonic physics. We find a significant increase in constraining power for the joint LSST + HLS wide survey compared to LSST Y10 (FoMHLSwide = 2.4 FoMLSST) and compared to LSST + HLS (FoMHLSwide = 5.5 FoMHLSref). 

ABSTRACT Measurements of large-scale structure are interpreted using theoretical predictions for the matter distribution, including potential impacts of baryonic physics. We constrain the feedback strength of baryons jointly with cosmology using weak lensing and galaxy clustering observables (3 × 2pt) of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 data in combination with external information from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and Planck cosmic microwave background polarization. Our baryon modelling is informed by a set of hydrodynamical simulations that span a variety of baryon scenarios; we span this space via a Principal Component (PC) analysis of the summary statistics extracted from these simulations. We show that at the level of DES Y1 constraining power, one PC is sufficient to describe the variation of baryonic effects in the observables, and the first PC amplitude (Q1) generally reflects the strength of baryon feedback. With the upper limit of Q1 prior being bound by the Illustris feedback scenarios, we reach $\sim 20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ improvement in the constraint of $S_8=\sigma _8(\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.788^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$ compared to the original DES 3 × 2pt analysis. This gain is driven by the inclusion of small-scale cosmic shear information down to 2.5 arcmin, which was excluded in previous DES analyses that did not model baryonic physics. We obtain $S_8=0.781^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ for the combined DES Y1+Planck EE+BAO analysis with a non-informative Q1 prior. In terms of the baryon constraints, we measure $Q_1=1.14^{+2.20}_{-2.80}$ for DES Y1 only and $Q_1=1.42^{+1.63}_{-1.48}$ for DESY1+Planck EE+BAO, allowing us to exclude one of the most extreme AGN feedback hydrodynamical scenario at more than 2σ. 

ABSTRACT We present new Gemini/GMOS optical spectroscopy of 16 extreme variability quasars (EVQs) that dimmed by more than 1.5 mag in the g band between the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Dark Energy Survey epochs (separated by a few years in the quasar rest frame). These EVQs are selected from quasars in the SDSS Stripe 82 region, covering a redshift range of 0.5 < z < 2.1. Nearly half of these EVQs brightened significantly (by more than 0.5 mag in the g band) in a few years after reaching their previous faintest state, and some EVQs showed rapid (non-blazar) variations of greater than 1–2 mag on time-scales of only months. To increase sample statistics, we use a supplemental sample of 33 EVQs with multi-epoch spectra from SDSS that cover the broad Mg ii λ2798 line. Leveraging on the large dynamic range in continuum variability between the multi-epoch spectra, we explore the associated variations in the broad Mg ii line, whose variability properties have not been well studied before. The broad Mg ii flux varies in the same direction as the continuum flux, albeit with a smaller amplitude, which indicates at least some portion of Mg ii is reverberating to continuum changes. However, the full width at half-maximum (FWHM) of Mg ii does not vary accordingly as continuum changes for most objects in the sample, in contrast to the case of the broad Balmer lines. Using the width of broad Mg ii to estimate the black hole mass with single epoch spectra therefore introduces a luminosity-dependent bias. 

Abstract Binary supermassive black holes (BSBHs) are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave (GW) siren, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P=1607±7 days) at 99.95% significance (with a global p-value of ∼10−3 accounting for the look elsewhere effect) in the optical light curves of a redshift 1.53 quasar, SDSS J025214.67−002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, sensitive imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ∼20-yr time baseline spans ∼4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best fit by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate modulation by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting GWs, dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302−102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna.